June 29, 2026   |   LPL Research

At the same time, broader measures of risk appetite suggest that speculative leverage and optimism have risen meaningfully alongside the rally. Margin debt has ramped considerably this year, with FINRA reporting that debit balances in customers’ securities accounts reached a record $1.42 trillion last month. Over the last 12 months, margin debt has climbed 54%, representing nearly two standard deviations above the long-term average, an indication that investors are increasingly using borrowed money to participate in the advance.

June 22, 2026   |   LPL Research

Last week’s attention was mostly on the Fed and its upwardly revised dot plot, but other central banks deserve some attention. The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) recent decision to hike rates reflects a notable shift after years of ultra‑easy policy, driven by stronger domestic inflation dynamics and rising wage growth, which signal that Japan is finally moving away from persistent deflation. 

June 15, 2026   |   LPL Research

The AI trade has been supported by a relatively simple bull-market narrative: the companies spending the most on AI infrastructure (large cloud platforms and hyperscalers) are profitable, cash-generative businesses, while many of the most visible beneficiaries are established semiconductor, networking, power, and data-center companies. That has led many in the market to suggest that this cycle is different from the late-1990s dot-com internet bubble, when many public companies had limited revenue, no profits, and business models that were still largely theoretical. However, a wave of AI model company IPOs could complicate that narrative, as the market will soon be asked to underwrite a different part of the AI ecosystem.

June 8, 2026   |   LPL Research

Despite the front-end repricing and near-term inflation risks from energy markets, long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored. This is a critical distinction: near-term inflation pressures from geopolitical events are being viewed as transitory, while structural price stability expectations remain firm.

June 1, 2026   |   LPL Research

The next key question we ask is whether economic conditions are supportive. We believe they are, particularly in terms of growth. Bolstered by fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and massive AI investment, LPL Research expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2% in 2026 (measured by real gross domestic product (GDP)), even if oil prices stay elevated for several more weeks.

May 26, 2026   |   LPL Research

How similar should investors expect equities to perform relative to the underlying commodities the businesses are exposed to? The key point to remember is agribusiness equities and agricultural commodities can converge when the market is repricing scarcity, but they often diverge when the question shifts from commodity price direction to how individual companies convert the agricultural cycle into earnings and free cash flow.

May 18, 2026   |   LPL Research

Non-residential fixed investment was a key support to first quarter growth, helping offset softer contributions from other parts of the economy and contributing roughly 1.4 points to headline growth. The strength largely reflected solid business spending on equipment, intellectual property products, and structures, suggesting firms remained willing to invest despite elevated financing costs and policy uncertainty. This matters because non-residential investment feeds directly into the real economy. 

May 11, 2026   |   LPL Research

Warsh has been a long-time critic of quantitative easing, referring to it as “reverse Robin Hood.” In his view, large-scale asset purchases supported financial markets and asset prices far more than the broader economy, widening wealth gaps and distorting how capital is allocated. As of late April 2026, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at around $6.7 trillion — still more than three times its pre-crisis size relative to the economy. To Warsh, this lingering expansion is evidence that the Fed never fully stepped back from its emergency footing.

May 4, 2026   |   LPL Research

As investment in AI ramps up and the market’s confidence in technology’s value increases, as we believe it did last week, the outlook for the technology sector improves. The debate about whether AI will fulfill its promise as a productivity enhancer won’t be settled for quite some time. But what we do know is that massive spending is going to continue. 

April 27, 2026   |   LPL Research

Despite excitement around increased domestic industrial activity, global trade remains resilient, with imports compounding at about 5% annually over the last decade. However, the supply chain disruptions that surfaced during COVID-19, as well as continued geopolitical upheavals, have put a renewed focus on building greater resilience into supply chains and ensuring self-reliance for key high-value industries and materials.

April 20, 2026   |   LPL Research

Non-U.S. developed market debt and EM debt represent significant portions of the global fixed income universe, offering U.S. investors alternatives to domestic Treasuries and corporate bonds. Non-U.S. developed debt includes sovereign and corporate bonds from countries like Germany, Japan, the U.K., France, Australia, and Canada — typically high-credit-quality issuers with deep markets but varying monetary policies. 

April 13, 2026   |   LPL Research

The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar (USD) against most currencies reflects investors’ assessment that the U.S. economy offers a uniquely strong combination of relative growth resilience, higher returns, and financial-system credibility. Compared with other advanced economies, the U.S. continues to exhibit firmer growth, a more flexible labor market, and a Fed committed to price stability. At the same time, global uncertainty has reinforced demand for deep and liquid dollar‑denominated assets, which remain a key source of safe and scalable collateral. As capital flows toward the U.S. for both return and safety — and away from lower‑growth, lower‑yield, or policy‑constrained economies — the dollar strengthens broadly, signaling that global investors continue to rank the U.S. economy as a relative safe haven.

April 6, 2026   |   LPL Research

Some may be surprised by the stock market’s relative resilience during this conflict given the surge in oil prices. Expectations from markets and the Trump administration that the military operation will be over this month is certainly part of that resilience. U.S. energy independence is part of it as well. But if there is one reason stocks have held up well so far — and hopefully continue to do so — it is the strong earnings outlook, even in the face of higher oil prices and rising interest rates.

March 30, 2026   |   LPL Research

Based on current estimates, about 80% of the earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q1 is expected to be driven by the technology sector, while the Magnificent (Mag) Seven alone is estimated to generate nearly half of S&P 500 earnings growth and grow earnings by about 19% based on current consensus estimates on an earnings-weighted basis.

That pace of growth from this group, which could likely exceed 25% when all the results are in, will probably more than double the earnings growth rate that the “S&P 493” will deliver. However, that gap is expected to narrow in coming quarters, something to watch closely given the recent struggles of these mega-cap technology stocks. The Mag Seven’s valuation, at a price-to-earnings ratio near 26, has come down but remains roughly 25% higher than the valuation for the rest of the S&P 500, aka the “493.”

March 23, 2026   |   LPL Research

Private credit is a broad asset class that is roughly $40 trillion in size and encompasses non-bank lending and debt investments that are not publicly traded. Unlike bonds issued in public markets, private credit transactions are negotiated directly between borrowers and investors, resulting in bespoke structures tailored to the specific needs of each deal. The asset class spans several strategies, including mezzanine financing, real estate debt, distressed debt, and asset-backed lending — and while most of the categories listed above are still in very solid positions, direct lending, which is a small piece of the private credit ecosystem, is the area that has been in the headlines recently.

March 16, 2026   |   LPL Research

The most obvious risk to the macro outlook is war in the Middle East and the secondary effects spilling into global logistics, commodity prices, and overall supply chains. Two key factors shaping the outlook amid geopolitical tensions are the magnitude and duration of the shock. Commodity prices would have to stay elevated for at least several weeks for the outlook to materially change. And given the declining oil intensity metrics, oil prices would need to breach $140 per barrel.

March 9, 2026   |   LPL Research

While no one knows when or how this conflict will end — or what Iran will look like after it’s over — we know markets don’t like uncertainty. However, the stock market has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of major geopolitical shocks in the past. Our review of more than eight decades of market reactions to 26 different geopolitical events is reassuring (see “The S&P 500 and Geopolitical Events: Mostly Short, Shallow Pullbacks” chart).

March 2, 2026   |   LPL Research

The simplest approach, and our core “control” strategy, is dividend yield. This method of generating equity income starts and ends simply by screening a universe of stocks for the highest dividend yield and buying them. The appeal lies in its simplicity and its maximalist approach to generating current income.

February 23, 2026   |   LPL Research

Within the 2026 SAA, we retain meaningful equity exposure but keep it modestly below benchmark exposure levels. We increase U.S. large-value and developed international equities where starting valuations, income, and stability characteristics strengthen the long‑run strategic investment case. 

February 17, 2026   |   LPL Research

Selling pressure has been severe across the software sector. The S&P North American Technology Software Index is down over 20% on the year and currently sits just over 30% below its September record high. Sentiment couldn’t get much worse, and positioning has been mostly a one-way street of short selling. According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, asset managers sold around $3.6 billion of Nasdaq futures during the week ending February 3, marking the largest week of short positioning in 11 months. Momentum indicators also reached historically oversold levels, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum oscillator used to measure the velocity of price action to determine trend strength — on the S&P North American Technology Index falling to its lowest level on record.

February 9, 2026   |   LPL Research

In 2026, EM earnings are expected to grow 29%, more than double current earnings growth expectations for the U.S. at 14%. EM may miss those lofty expectations, but the avalanche of AI investment in Asia and increased focus on corporate governance, efficient capital allocation, and shareholder returns, including in China, South Korea, and India, position EM earnings and cash flows to potentially outgrow the U.S. as well as Europe and Japan in 2026.